{"id":3668,"date":"2026-08-26T05:17:41","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T05:17:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alummira.com\/?p=3668"},"modified":"2026-08-26T05:18:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-26T05:18:14","slug":"energy-crisis-impact-restructuring-of-aluminum-extrusion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/alummira.com\/ru\/energy-crisis-impact-restructuring-of-aluminum-extrusion\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Crisis \u2013 Impact & Restructuring of Aluminum Extrusion"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Bottom Line: Opportunity Exists \u2013 But Only for Those Who Act Now<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s second energy crisis in five years is creating a structural supply gap in aluminium. For Chinese extruders, this opens a real export window \u2013 but anti-dumping duties and CBAM carbon costs stand in the way.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key question is not whether the crisis will affect the industry.<\/strong> Instead, companies must ask: How profoundly will it reshape the entire value chain?<\/em> <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0410\u041b\u0423\u041c\u041c\u0418\u0420\u0410<\/strong>, an aluminium alloy supplier with deep roots in the European market, has observed a clear shift. More European customers are now asking about non\u2011European alternatives. They want to know whether longer delivery lead\u2011times can secure more stable pricing.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not a short\u2011term trend. It is a supply chain restructuring.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Energy Costs Are the Achilles\u2019 Heel of Aluminium Smelting<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Numbers Tell the Story<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Producing one tonne of primary aluminium consumes 13,500\u201316,000 kWh<\/strong> of electricity.<\/a> In Europe, industrial electricity prices now range from \u20ac80 to \u20ac120\/MWh<\/strong>. That is two to four times<\/strong> the levels in China, the United States, or the Middle East.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The transmission channel is brutal.<\/strong> The Strait of Hormuz disruption reduces LNG arrivals, driving up gas\u2011fired power costs. In Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, wholesale electricity follows natural gas almost one\u2011for\u2011one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For an aluminium smelter, every \u20ac10\/MWh increase<\/strong> in power cost adds roughly \u20ac135\u2013160<\/strong> to the cost per tonne of metal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s Production Has Collapsed<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Since 2022, Europe has shut down about 50%<\/strong> of its primary smelting capacity.<\/a> Today, the EU produces only around 950,000 tonnes<\/strong> of primary aluminium annually. However, it consumes 13.5 million tonnes<\/strong> \u2013 a structural deficit of 93%<\/strong> .<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Slovalco plant in Slovakia is a case in point.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2022, it halted all production when power prices skyrocketed. In July 2026, it announced a partial restart of 75,000 tonnes<\/strong>. However, its total capacity is 175,000\u2013200,000 tonnes<\/strong>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if fully restarted, it would cover merely 2\u20133% of the EU\u2019s annual aluminium deficit.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

European Aluminium Extruders Face a Double Squeeze<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Squeeze #1: Direct Energy Costs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Extruders transform primary or recycled aluminium into profiles for construction, automotive, and machinery. The direct energy cost of extrusion accounts for 8\u201312%<\/strong> of production costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More importantly, extruders source most of their billet from domestic smelters or imports. When domestic smelters shut down, billet premiums rise<\/strong>. European P1020 premiums have hovered around **$487\/tonne** \u2013 down from May\u2019s peak of $621, but still elevated compared to historical averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0410\u041b\u0423\u041c\u041c\u0418\u0420\u0410<\/strong> has observed that many small\u2011 and medium\u2011sized extruders \u2013 which previously sourced only European billet \u2013 are now actively reaching out to Asian suppliers<\/strong> of aluminium alloy ingots and billets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One ALUMMIRA business director noted: \u201cEuropean customers are now less concerned about \u2018where to buy\u2019 than about \u2018whether supply can be guaranteed continuously\u2019. The uncertainty of energy prices has made the supply commitments of European smelters unreliable.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Squeeze #2: Carbon Regulations (CBAM)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The EU\u2019s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)<\/strong> entered full application in January 2026.<\/a> It requires importers to buy carbon certificates at roughly \u20ac75\u201390\/tonne of CO\u2082<\/strong> .<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For aluminium, CBAM adds an estimated \u20ac80\u2013120 per tonne<\/strong> of carbon cost, depending on the production route.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smaller extruders<\/strong> \u2013 lacking dedicated sustainability teams \u2013 are struggling to absorb both the administrative overhead and the higher cost of low\u2011carbon primary metal.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Q1 2026, German recycled aluminium production fell by 3%<\/strong> year\u2011on\u2011year \u2013 partly due to high scrap prices and partly due to energy\u2011related curtailments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reshaping Supply and Demand: What This Means for Chinese Exports<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Supply Gap Is Real<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The EU\u2019s self\u2011sufficiency rate has dropped below 7%<\/strong> .<\/a> The affected smelting capacity in 2026 is estimated at 3.45 million tonnes<\/strong> across Western and Central Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This gap must be filled by imports<\/strong> \u2013 primarily from the Middle East, Russia, and Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demand Is Mixed \u2013 But Key Sectors Are Growing<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Automotive lightweighting<\/strong> \u0438 solar photovoltaic frames<\/strong> continue to drive robust demand for extruded profiles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0412 CEN FLEXCRASH project<\/strong> \u2013 launched in August \u2013 is pushing for more aluminium in car body structures. This will further boost high\u2011strength extrusion grades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u041e\u0434\u043d\u0430\u043a\u043e, construction<\/strong> \u2013 another major pillar \u2013 remains sluggish due to high interest rates and the lingering effects of the economic slowdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Two Barriers for Chinese Exporters<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Barrier #1: Anti\u2011Dumping Sunset Review<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On March 27, 2026<\/strong>, the EU initiated a sunset review of anti\u2011dumping duties on Chinese aluminium extrusions.<\/a> Current duties range from 21.2% to 32.1%<\/strong> .<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The review decision \u2013 expected by March 2027<\/strong> \u2013 will determine whether these tariffs are extended, lifted, or raised.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barrier #2: CBAM Carbon Costs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

CBAM adds an estimated \u20ac80\u2013120 per tonne<\/strong> of carbon cost for Chinese extrusions.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Together, these measures mean that even with a supply gap, Chinese products may not be cost\u2011competitive<\/strong> unless they adopt low\u2011carbon smelting or shift production to third countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Opportunity, According to ALUMMIRA<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u0410\u041b\u0423\u041c\u041c\u0418\u0420\u0410<\/strong> believes the current market environment actually creates a structural opportunity<\/strong> for Chinese aluminium alloy suppliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEuropean customers are re\u2011evaluating their supplier lists,\u201d<\/em> the team commented. \u201cIn the past they might have considered only European or a few traditional sources; now they are willing to sit down and talk with more Asian suppliers. This is not short\u2011term emergency buying \u2013 it is a supply chain restructuring.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Three Structural Shifts Reshaping the Industry<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Shift #1: Global Supply Chains Are Re\u2011Routing<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

European buyers are diversifying away from Russian metal \u2013 still available but politically risky. They are increasing term contracts with Middle Eastern smelters<\/strong> that use cheap associated gas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indonesian and Indian capacity<\/strong> is also being qualified for European automotive and aerospace specifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This geographical recomposition reduces Europe\u2019s dependence on any single source<\/strong> \u2013 but it also raises logistics costs and lead times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shift #2: The Circular Economy Is Accelerating<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The EU\u2019s 15% export tax on aluminium scrap<\/strong> \u2013 effective September 9, 2026<\/strong> \u2013 is expected to keep about 2 million tonnes<\/strong> of scrap within the bloc each year.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will boost European recyclers<\/strong>, who use only 5%<\/strong> of the energy of primary smelting. It will make recycled\u2011based extrusion billet more price\u2011competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, for Chinese recyclers<\/strong>, this tax means a loss of a major scrap source \u2013 about 30%<\/strong> of China\u2019s imported aluminium scrap historically came from Europe. They must now look to Southeast Asia or domestic \u201curban mining\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shift #3: Energy\u2011Related Competitiveness Remains Decisive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

European smelters will only survive if they secure long\u2011term power purchase agreements<\/strong> with renewable generators or receive state aid \u2013 both of which are limited.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chinese aluminium producers<\/strong> \u2013 by contrast \u2013 benefit from stable coal\u2011based power (albeit carbon\u2011intensive) and rapidly expanding solar and hydro capacity in western provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This cost advantage is widening, not narrowing.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strategic Takeaways for Chinese Extrusion Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

1. The short\u2011term window is real.<\/strong> Europe needs metal. Tariffs may be reduced if the sunset review finds no injury to EU producers.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. The long\u2011term game is about decarbonisation.<\/strong> Invest in green aluminium \u2013 using hydropower or carbon capture. Alternatively, set up recycling facilities in Europe itself to bypass both anti\u2011dumping and CBAM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Alternative markets are growing faster.<\/strong> Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa may offer better risk\u2011reward profiles than the increasingly regulated European market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion: A Window of Opportunity Behind High Walls<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Europe\u2019s second energy crisis in five years is not a temporary spike<\/strong> \u2013 it is a structural reset<\/strong> .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The crisis is widening the cost gap between European and Chinese aluminium production.<\/strong> For Chinese extruders, this creates a genuine export opportunity \u2013 but only if they can navigate the twin hurdles of anti\u2011dumping duties and carbon tariffs.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0410\u041b\u0423\u041c\u041c\u0418\u0420\u0410<\/strong> offers a forward\u2011looking perspective: \u201cCompanies that start now to build European customer relationships and understand EU carbon compliance requirements will gain a first\u2011mover advantage over the next three to five years. If you wait until the market is fully clear before acting, the window may have already closed.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The smart players are already diversifying their supply chains, investing in low\u2011carbon technologies, and even considering local production in Europe.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The energy crisis has not killed the aluminium industry. It has merely redrawn the map.<\/strong> Those who read the map correctly will thrive. Those who ignore it will be left behind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

About ALUMMIRA<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

ALUMMIRA (alummira.com<\/a>) is an aluminium alloy supplier specialising in aluminium profiles and products. The company is committed to providing high\u2011quality aluminium material solutions to customers worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you are interested in European aluminium market trends, supply chain strategies, or aluminium procurement needs, please visit the ALUMMIRA official website<\/strong> or contact the business team directly through the contact information provided there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parts of the industry insights in this article are derived from field feedback from ALUMMIRA\u2019s European market team.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

External References<\/h2>\n\n\n\n